Donald Trump won seven of 11 states on “Super Tuesday.” Against all odds, he is now one more triumphant day away from winning the Republican presidential nomination.
And his detractors are flipping out.
Having utterly failed to foresee or stop his rise, this divided group of anti-TrumpRepublicans is now proposing an array of last-ditch strategies for denying him the nomination in favour of Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. None of them are especially likely to work.
“Rubio should be focused on one thing and one thing only,” wrote Sean Davis of the conservative The Federalist. “Nuking Trump from orbit in Florida.”
Rubio and Cruz went easy on Trump all campaign, then mounted a desperate assault on his record and personality last week. If you looked hard enough, you could find signs that the belated onslaught had been effective: Trump did worse than the last round of polls suggested he would, and he did poorly with people who made up their minds in the days before the vote. The problem, of course, is that he still easily carried the day.
Through mid-February, a paltry $9 million of $215 million in Super PAC spending had been spent attacking Trump. His rivals and their wealthy backers sprayed their fire at each other, largely letting Trump off the hook. Now, frantically attempting to rectify this miscalculation, rich Republicans are pouring millions into Super PACs that will focus exclusively, or close, on tarnishing their fellow one-percenter.
An ad barrage swiftly sunk Newt Gingrich in 2012.
But Super PACs have appeared wildly ineffective this campaign, and it might well be too late to ruin Trump. Many of his supporters made up their minds weeks ago, his political brand appears firmly established, and 300,000 people have already voted in the critical Florida primary.
Sen. Lindsey Graham joked last week about murdering Cruz. On a when-pigs-fly kind of Tuesday, he said it might be time for the party to coalesce around Cruz. Rubio was supposed to be the great establishment hope, but he has won only one small state to date. Cruz has won four, including three on Super Tuesday, and is much closer to Trump in the delegate count.
Cruz asked his opponents on Tuesday to “prayerfully” consider getting behind him. Which brings us to the problem: the right-wing evangelical has only done well in places were people pray frequently, and not all that well even there.
His best region, the Bible Belt, has just gone for Trump, and he is weak in the north and Midwest. Ben Carson’s withdrawal Wednesday night will help, but probably not enough.
If Trump does not earn the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination outright, his opponents or somebody else — Mitt Romney? The ghost of Teddy Roosevelt? — could try to wrest the crown from him at the Republican convention in Cleveland in July.
But Trump will be well on his way to a majority if he wins the winner-takes-all-delegates primaries in Florida and Ohio on March 15, maybe even if he wins just one of the two. And any backroom manoeuvrings to seize victory from the man in first place would likely infuriate enough of his supporters to guarantee the defeat of the elite-selected Republican in the general election.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, long a member-in-good-standing of the Republican establishment, has been mocked and shamed by former fellow travellers since he endorsed Trump last week. Even little-known operatives are facing pressure to stay away.
“Staffers/consultants trying to board the Trump Train for scraps: the man wouldn’t condemn white supremacists. Hope that resume like works out,” Republican pollster and writer Kristen Soltis Anderson wrote on Twitter. Power, though, is irresistible to Washington operatives, even when there is a risk of career implosion, and Politico reports that Capitol Hill aides have begun “peddling their resumes.”
Last week, Republican strategist Patrick Ruffini suggested a joint post-Tuesday declaration from “a parade of party leaders,” from George W. Bush to Nancy Reagan to Ron Paul, that they will not support Trump in the general election. There’s little evidence such a statement would work. Bush is the subject of Trump attacks and the brother of a failed Trump opponent; Reagan, 94, doesn’t have an active political constituency; Paul never had mass appeal.
The party, in the short, is bereft of revered elders. And Trump voters want to blow up the old Republican order, not take instruction from it. Romney, the most recent party nominee, is planning to denounce Trump in a speech on Thursday. Expect him dismissed by Trumpworld as the inveterate loser who got Barack Obama re-elected.(Daniel Dale)
Link: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/03/02/anti-trump-talk-ramps-up-in-republican-party.html
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