Syrian President Bashar Assad’s immediate removal is no longer a priority for key players in the Syrian crisis. US Secretary of State John Kerry announced last week that it might be possible for the Syrian government and rebel forces to cooperate against Daesh militants without Assad having first left power.
A day later French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said he no longer believed that Assad’s departure was necessary before any political transition in Syria. Both statements pointed to a major shift in the positions of both the US and France with regard to what has always been the main obstacle in the path of a achieving a political settlement to the Syrian conflict.
For France, whose previous position on Assad had been extreme and in line with that of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, the turnaround occurred following last month’s Paris terrorist attacks for which Daesh claimed responsibility. President Francois Hollande described the bloody attacks as an act of war and in response made the defeat of Daesh in Syria his top priority. He attempted to convince the US and Russia to join forces as part of an international coalition to fight the terrorists. The Paris attacks have led Germany and Britain to join the air campaign in Syria as well. The threat of Daesh has become the focus of regional and international efforts and has contributed to the shift in positions by key players over the future of Assad.
Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet last month has divided the western alliance as tensions between Ankara and Moscow reached unprecedented levels. While Washington and NATO supported Turkish claims of self-defense, it was clear that neither the US nor its European allies wanted to escalate the situation or risk confrontation with Russia. The incident has hardened Moscow’s position on the fate of Assad and threatened to derail the upcoming round of negotiations over political transition in Syria.
While Kerry has admitted that the fate of Assad remains a divisive issue, he was hopeful that this month’s talks in New York on Syria would bring parties closer to an agreement. There seems to be a US-Russian understanding on how to move forward in Syria along two parallel lines; fighting and destroying Daesh and achieving political transition.
The shift in US and French positions has angered the Syrian opposition. The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and other factions may disagree on the shape of the future Syrian state, but they all insist on the removal of Assad. Kerry has called on the opposition to adopt a creative stand, but it is unlikely that they will accept to compromise on the issue of Assad’s role in a political transition.
The shift in US and French positions will widen the gap with Saudi Arabia, which still insists on the immediate departure of Assad politically or by force. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have strong ties with opposition forces on the ground and can influence the political opposition and other moderate factions. Riyadh’s agenda and perspective on the conflict will have a direct impact on the outcome of the Syrian opposition conference.
The proposal that moderate Syrian rebel groups, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), can fight along government forces to defeat Daesh is naïve and unrealistic. Such an alliance can never work while the Assad regime is intact. It defies the goals of the Syrian revolution and its sacrifices. It ignores the fact that regime has killed over 300,000 people and destroyed most of the country.
By the same token keeping Assad in power as part of the political transition is problematic. There are no guarantees that he and his aides will ever leave or that they will not seek to corrupt the political process for their own benefit.
As fighting Daesh becomes the primary objective for almost all key players in Syria, the prospects of implementing the road map that was agreed on in the last meeting in Vienna will grow weaker. Achieving consensus among all stakeholders will be impossible. Once key players get into details differences will surface again. What will determine the fate of the Syrian conflict will be the successes and failures on the ground.
The Russian military intervention along side of the regime has tipped the balance of power in some areas. But it is unlikely to restore the regime’s control over all Syrian territory. Attempts to achieve two immediate goals in Syria; fighting Daseh and concluding political transition will not be easy. Bringing the regime and the opposition together in the fight against the militants will prove unrealistic.
The only true winner from all these shifts in positions is the Assad regime. His fate will not be decided in meetings in Vienna and New York but rather in the killing fields of Syria.(OSAMA AL SHARIF)
Link: http://www.arabnews.com/columns/news/847726
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